Botswana Coal: Navigating Economic Diversification and Climate Commitments

: This paper considers the ethical dilemma posed by the Paris Climate Agreement considering the abundant coal exploitation opportunities in Botswana. The estimated 200 billion tons of coal was initially viewed as an opportunity to diversify the Botswana economy away from diamonds. Coal is currently used locally for electricity production and other small scale domestic uses. This paper mainly discusses thermal coal as opposed to coking coal commonly referred to as Met-coal. Lucrative prices on world markets coupled with demand in India and China for coal, Botswana with its massive coal deposits, one of the largest in world, can develop a new export sector which would diversify the diamond dependent economy. In 2012 the Government of Botswana released a Coal Road Map as it then envisaged coal as one of the more propitious areas for economic diversification. However, the potential to develop this export sector has been seriously challenged by the Paris Climate Agreement decision to move away from coal. In the wake of this treaty countries like China and Japan have refocused their efforts in developing renewable energy and this has negatively hampered Botswana’s economic ambitions.


Introduction
Botswana is a landlocked country in Southern Africa and borders countries such as Namibia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Zambia.The country is mostly covered by the Kalahari Desert, thus making it a sparsely populated country with little agricultural activity (Mosha, 2020).Botswana's economy heavily relies on its diamond industry, which accounts for approximately 80% of its export earnings, 30% of its GDP, and 50% of government revenue (World Bank Group, 2023).This dependence, while beneficial in terms of economic growth and development, poses significant risks.Fluctuations in global diamond prices can severely impact national income and economic stability.For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis, diamond sales plummeted by over 50%, highlighting the vulnerability of the economy to external shocks (He, Khang, & Krishnamurthy, 2010).The same trend was observed in 2020 during the covid pandemic as illustrated in Figure 1.Moreover, the finite nature of diamond  Botswana has considerable coal deposits, one of the largest untapped potential reserves in the world at over 200 billion tons (Harvey, 2015).It is estimated that as much as two thirds of Africa's coal resource is found in Botswana (Wiston, 2017).This coal deposit is enough to diversify the Botswana economy away from diamonds to improve the living standards and achieve energy sufficiency for the locals and the region.The country has for decades conducted many coal explorations to assess both the quantities and quality.The initial focus also included to export washed coal to countries like Japan, China and India (The Government of the Republic of Botswana and the Government of the Republic of South Africa, 2012).

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The Morupule Power Station, the largest in the country, uses locally mined coal to generate electricity, reducing dependence on imported energy and fostering local economic growth ((IRENA), 2021).This reliance on coal supports employment in the mining and energy sectors and provides a stable and relatively low-cost source of electricity (Williams, 2023).As Botswana seeks to balance economic growth with environmental stewardship, transitioning to cleaner energy sources remains a long-term goal.
The country is considered a middle-income having been one of the fastest growing economies in Africa during the last decade (Hillbom & Bolt, 2018).Exploitation of coal could be an option for diversification.Just like many countries, Botswana is still heavily reliant on coal for its energy security.The financial situation coupled with limited access to clean energy technology, challenge to meet social and economic needs of the citizenry has proven to be the main culprit forcing countries like Botswana to stick to their traditional energy production means (Jaiswal et al., 2022).Phasing out coal means Botswana could be left in the cold and darkness of poverty and economic hardships (Do & Burke, 2023).It is widely documented that Africa has 13% of the world's population, and 48% of the population is without access to electricity (O'Sullivan, 2021).

Botswana in the Context of the Paris Agreement
Climate change impacts are already a reality for millions of people worldwide, especially the poor, who have contributed the least to the climate crisis (Gernaat et al., 2021).Botswana is a signatory to the many multilateral environmental agreements including the Paris Agreement, an international treaty on climate change.The Paris Agreement is a landmark international accord that was adopted by nearly every nation in 2015 to address climate change and its negative impacts.The member states of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) overwhelmingly endorsed the key recommendations contained in the Paris Climate Agreement (Tollefson & Weiss, 2015).The treaty aims to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, while pursuing the means to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees (Rogelj et al., 2016).The agreement includes commitments from all major emitting countries to cut their climate pollution and to strengthen those commitments over time (Hung, VanderZaag, Smith, & Grant, 2022).The pact also provides a pathway for developed nations to assist developing nations in their climate mitigation and adaptation efforts, and it creates a framework for the transparent monitoring, reporting, and ratcheting up of countries' individual and collective climate goals.It also asks countries to work to achieve a leveling off from global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible and to become greenhouse gas emissions neutral in the second half of this century.
To achieve the Paris Agreement's original objectives, 186 countries-responsible for more than 90 percent of global emissions-submitted carbon reduction targets, known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), prior to the Paris conference (Matemilola, Fadeyi, & Sijuade, 2023).These targets outlined each country's commitments for curbing emissions (including through the preservation of carbon sinks) through 2025 or 2030, including economy-wide carbon-cutting goals.INDCs turn into NDCs-nationally determined contributions-once a country formally joins the agreement.There are no specific requirements about how or how much countries should cut emissions, but there have been political expectations about the type and stringency of targets by various countries based on the latest science.As a result, national plans vary greatly in scope and ambition, largely reflecting each country's capabilities, its level of development, and its contribution to emissions over time.China, for example, committed to leveling off its carbon emissions no later than 2030 (Tang et al., 2022), (Guo et al., 2023).India set its sights on cutting emissions intensity by 33 to 35 percent below 2005 levels and generating 40 percent of its electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030 (Jackson et al., 2016).Botswana on the other hand intends to achieve an overall emissions reduction of 15% by 2030, taking 2010 as the base year.Base year emission estimation is 8307 Gg of CO2 equivalent (Akinyemi & Abiodun, 2019).The targeted emissions reduction will be achieved domestically through strategies and measures which are relevant for the implementation of the target.
The Botswana government has committed to reduce its overall emission by 15 percent by 2030, by prioritizing the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) which forms part of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement (Botswana, 2016).The NDC explicitly highlights the need for the country to undertake national adaptation measures to safeguard the economy and livelihoods and promote sustainable environment.The Government of Botswana recognizes the need to treat climate change adaptation as a development issue and integrate it into its development planning process.This National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Framework was therefore developed to comprehensively address adaptation and ensure its holistic mainstreaming.Botswana is impacted by climate variability and change leading to changes in temperature, rainfall patterns, increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, such as drought and floods (Botswana, 2016;Hasegawa et al., 2021).This vulnerability to climate change by the country necessitated the signing of the Paris Agreement by the country on the onset.It is, however, important to show that the signing of the treaty came with some uncertainties for the energy future because of investors and financial institution's uptake of the environmental protection agenda.
Unfair and unbalanced transition from fossil energy to renewable energy is likely to create energy poverty, commonly defined as the inability to secure adequate levels of energy services in the home (Sy & Mokaddem, 2022).The lack of access to modern energy services, remains a critical challenge in the context of the Paris Climate Agreement.The agreement underscores the need for a global transition to sustainable energy systems, yet it also highlights the paradox faced by developing nations (Bogdanov et al., 2019).These countries often grapple with severe energy poverty, impeding their economic development and exacerbating social inequalities (Raghutla & Chittedi, 2022).Addressing this issue necessitates a careful approach that balances the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions with the aim of ensuring universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy.Tailored policies must be crafted to support the deployment of clean energy technologies and infrastructure in these regions, fostering economic growth while adhering to environmental commitments (Xiao, Feng, Li, & Wang, 2024).International cooperation, technology transfer, and substantial financial investments are pivotal in mitigating energy poverty, thereby enabling developing nations to participate fully in the global endeavor to combat climate change.
The targets and promises of the Paris Agreement bear no relationship to biophysical or social and economic reality (Xiao et al., 2024).It is important to recognize that countries like Botswana cannot immediately abandon coalbased plants and all its plans to meet its energy security and economic goals.The world should give room for countries to find better technologies to clean the coal for use (Wicks & Keay, 2005).

Coal as the Main Contributor to Global Warming
Coal is formed from prehistoric vegetation that accumulated about 300 million years ago when much of the Earth's surface was covered in swamps (Grainger & Gibson, 1982).As the plants and trees in these swampy areas began to die, their remains sank into the swamp land, which eventually formed a dense material called peat.Over time, layers of sediment and soil accumulated over the peat.The combination of heat from the Earth's core and pressure of the rock and sediments caused the eventual formation of carbon-rich coal.There are significant environmental impacts associated with coal mining and use (Finkelman, Wolfe, & Hendryx, 2021).It could require the removal of massive amounts of topsoil, leading to erosion, loss of habitat and pollution.Coal mining causes acid mine drainage, which causes heavy metals to dissolve and seep into ground and surface water.
The burning of coal, like the burning of all fossil fuels (oil and natural gas included), releases large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere and is a major driver of global warming.
A potent greenhouse gas, CO2 molecules allow the shorterwavelength rays from the Sun to enter the atmosphere and strike Earth's surface, but they do not allow much of the long-wave radiation reradiated from the surface to escape into space (El Zohbi & Rechid, 2024).The CO2 absorbs this upward-propagating infrared radiation and reemits a portion of it downward, causing the lower atmosphere to remain warmer than it would otherwise be (Whitburn et al., 2021).According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there is substantial evidence that higher concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases due to human activity have increased the mean temperature of Earth since the 1950s (IPCC, 2018).Generation of electricity involves the use various sources of inputs raw materials: coal, diesel fuel, natural gas, hydropower, tidal power, wind power, and solar power.Of all these sources, coal is the most polluting (Dwyer & Sambath, 2019).Coal-fired electricity is responsible for producing 35 percent of the world's power and about 70 percent of it is used by the steel industry and in cement production (Williams, 2023).Analysts estimate that the world has hundreds of years of coal reserves in the ground, at current consumption levels (Thomas, 2023).

Making a Case for Coal Usage
The urgency of addressing climate change necessitates an innovative approach to coal usage, ensuring it aligns with the Paris Climate Agreement's objectives.Central to this is the implementation of advanced coal cleaning technologies that significantly reduce the carbon footprint of coal-fired power plants (Asif, Chen, Wang, & Zhu, 2022).Among these technologies, pre-combustion cleaning stands out as a pivotal strategy.This involves the physical removal of impurities such as sulfur, mercury, and ash from raw coal before it is burned, thus mitigating the release of harmful pollutants (Oberschelp, Pfister, Raptis, & Hellweg, 2019).Advanced techniques, including coal washing and chemical cleaning, enhance the efficiency of this process, yielding cleaner-burning coal (Lee, Kim, Chun, Choi, & Yoo, 2017).Employing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies postcombustion captures carbon dioxide emissions at their source (Ding, Wei, & Yu, 2020), preventing them from entering the atmosphere.The integration of these methods ensures that coal can be a part of a diversified and sustainable energy portfolio, harmonizing its use with global climate goals.
Investing in research and development can drive innovation, making coal cleaning methods more efficient and cost-effective (Xie, 2021).By prioritizing these measures, the coal industry can contribute to a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, facilitating compliance with the Paris Climate Agreement.Thus, while coal has historically been a major contributor to carbon emissions, through strategic technological advancements and supportive policies, it can be transformed into a cleaner energy source, aligning with the imperative to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius.

Conclusion and Recommendations
Botswana faces a significant challenge in balancing economic growth and environmental sustainability.The country's substantial coal reserves present an opportunity for economic diversification away from its dependency on diamonds.However, the global commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Climate Agreement poses a dilemma.Botswana's reliance on coal for energy production and potential export opportunities is at odds with the global shift towards renewable energy sources.Despite the environmental concerns, coal remains a critical component of Botswana's energy strategy due to its affordability and availability.
In pursuit of a balanced approach to energy generation, the continued use of coal for electricity can be achieved through the implementation of advanced clean coal technologies.(Li et al., 2023).One such method involves the utilization of carbon capture and storage, which significantly reduces the carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants (Nagireddi, Agarwal, & Vedapuri, 2024).By capturing CO2 before it reaches the atmosphere and storing it underground, we can mitigate the environmental impact of coal combustion.Additionally, coal by-products, such as fly ash and sulfur, can be repurposed into valuable materials (Ma et al., 2022).Fly ash is commonly used in the construction industry as a supplementary cementitious material, enhancing the durability and strength of concrete (Kalyoncu, 2020).Sulfur, another by-product, can be transformed into sulfuric acid, a critical industrial chemical used in a variety of applications including fertilizer production and mineral processing (Priyadarshi et al., 2023).By integrating these practices, coal can continue to play a role in our energy portfolio while aligning with environmental sustainability goals.
To address the dual imperatives of economic growth and environmental protection, Botswana should adopt a multi-faceted strategy.First, the government should invest in research and development of clean coal technologies to minimize the carbon footprint of coal-fired power plants.Also, Botswana should engage in international dialogues to advocate for tailored policies that recognize the unique challenges faced by developing nations.These policies should support a gradual transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, allowing time for the development and implementation of clean coal technologies.The country can achieve a balanced approach that promotes economic diversification and sustainable development while fulfilling its commitments under the Paris Climate Agreement.